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The growth of the January price for stainless steel

In late December 2009 and early 2010, most Asian stainless steel producers announced to increase export prices to hire 300 and 400 series. The basis of such decisions — in nickel prices on the LME growth.

The monthly average cash price for nickel on the LME in December 2009, compared to November increased by 0.3% and amounted to 17 066 USD / ton. Already in the 20 days of December at the cash price of nickel on the LME quotations exceeded the average level.

Following the auction, January 6, 2010 on the LME cash price for nickel was 18 955 USD / ton, and nickel with 3 months. delivery — 19 050 USD / ton. The volume of stocks amounted to 158,388 tons. The current value of the average cash price for nickel in January 2010 is 18 803 USD / ton, that 10.2% more than in December 2010.

On the last years, the volume of world production of stainless steel has been steadily declining. In 2006, it amounted to — 28.3 million tons, and it was the best year for the global market… In 2007 — 27.8 million tons, in 2008 -. 25.9 mln.tn. At the end of 2009 according to expert estimates, the global volume amounted to 23.9 million. Tons, which is 7.7% below the 2008 level.

Analysts and market experts in unison give optimistic forecasts for an increase in stainless steel production in 2010, which should positively affect the growth of quotations of nickel. However, all noted the high volume of reserves of nickel on LME (158 thousand. Tons), which is more than 13% of global production.

For the stainless steel market is a natural indicator of nickel in the final product price. Even for rolled 400 series, where nickel is absent, the correlation between the nickel and the end product is 30−40% prices. The basis of this approach — a system of pricing for the products of stainless steel.

The main intrigue around the nickel price is likely to unfold in the first quarter of 2010.

In late December 2009 and early 2010, most Asian stainless steel producers announced to increase export prices to hire 300 and 400 series. The basis of such decisions — in nickel prices on the LME growth.

The monthly average cash price for nickel on the LME in December 2009, compared to November increased by 0.3% and amounted to 17 066 USD / ton. Already in the 20 days of December at the cash price of nickel on the LME quotations exceeded the average level.

Following the auction, January 6, 2010 on the LME cash price for nickel was 18 955 USD / ton, and nickel with 3 months. delivery — 19 050 USD / ton. The volume of stocks amounted to 158,388 tons. The current value of the average cash price for nickel in January 2010 is 18 803 USD / ton, that 10.2% more than in December 2010.

On the last years, the volume of world production of stainless steel has been steadily declining. In 2006, it amounted to — 28.3 million tons, and it was the best year for the global market… In 2007 — 27.8 million tons, in 2008 -. 25.9 mln.tn. At the end of 2009 according to expert estimates, the global volume amounted to 23.9 million. Tons, which is 7.7% below the 2008 level.

Analysts and market experts in unison give optimistic forecasts for an increase in stainless steel production in 2010, which should positively affect the growth of quotations of nickel. However, all noted the high volume of reserves of nickel on LME (158 thousand. Tons), which is more than 13% of global production.

For the stainless steel market is a natural indicator of nickel in the final product price. Even for rolled 400 series, where nickel is absent, the correlation between the nickel and the end product is 30−40% prices. The basis of this approach — a system of pricing for the products of stainless steel.

The main intrigue around the nickel price is likely to unfold in the first quarter of 2010.

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