According to Yoshihiro Nishiyama, holding the office of a top manager of the marketing department of the Japanese corporation «Pan Pacific Copper», the global copper surplus next year could reach its peak in the time span of five years. It will happen — said the representative of the Asian company — under the influence of a substantial decrease in Chinese demand for resources. The second essential factor of surplus red metal growth — a significant increase in its production volumes in many countries around the world. In particular, it is estimated Yoshihiro Nishiyama, in 2014, demand for copper will offer less than about 643 thousand. Tonnes. This difference — the expert — in world markets not seen since 2009, when the global economy was gripped by crisis.
Meanwhile, not all analysts share radically pessimistic view of Japanese players. For example, an investment bank experts «Goldman Sachs» predict that next year the global copper surplus will reach just 392 ths. Tons. In similar figures (at the level of 420 thous. Tons) and analysts expect «Morgan Stanley» financial conglomerate.
Recall that from the beginning of this year, copper has fallen in price by more than 12%, while stocks of the red metal in warehouses in the world have grown almost twice (in mind the above-mentioned decrease in demand from China, the effect of which was reinforced by the protracted debt crisis European countries). At the same time experienced operators of trading platforms several months ago warned the players in the sector: the increase in the supply of the metal may cause the subsequent price decline.
Although experts worry, copper production in some countries continues to grow. So according to the statistical agency «INE», the production volumes of copper in Chile in June 2013 increased by almost 6% compared to May of 2013. Total in the country this month was produced 482.25 thousand. Tons of the red metal. As a result of the whole of the first half of 2013 (compared to the same period last year) resource production is increased by 4.8% and reached the level of 2.78 million. Tons.
Russian Corporation «Norilsk Nickel» also increases the volume of copper output. From the analytical data show that the second quarter of this year, compared with the first quarter, it increased by 4% (to the level of 94.6 thousand. Tons in absolute terms). In total for the first half of 2013 the concern was made 186 ths. Tons of copper, which is 4% more than the same period last year.
It does not lag behind its competitors and the largest mining and smelting concern in Kazakhstan — the company «Kazakhmys», which in the first half of this year increased the volume of copper cathode from own material release almost 7% (to the level of 144 thousand tons.).
Assessing the current situation in the market, analysts said: «This situation suggests that we may be faced with an overabundance of the formation of a stable life, so copper prices will continue to decline steadily after three red metal shortage in the markets.